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Anges Verts vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Anges Verts
Anges Verts
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New Jack
New Jack
4/18/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Anges Verts40%
×Draw29%
New Jack31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anges Verts
1.21
New Jack
1.03

Anges Verts creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

Anges Verts
1.16
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Anges Verts
1.48
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Anges Verts+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anges Verts ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Anges Verts or draw
69%
Anges Verts or New Jack
71%
Draw or New Jack
60%

Winning margin

Anges Verts wins by 2+
17%
New Jack wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Anges Verts 1+ goals
70%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
34%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
12%
New Jack 1+ goals
64%
New Jack 2+ goals
28%
New Jack 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Anges Verts (draw refunded)
56%
New Jack (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anges Verts at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anges Verts attack 1.16 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

New Jack attack 0.59 + Anges Verts defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Anges Verts scores more
40%
level
29%
New Jack scores more
31%

Anges Verts at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Anges Verts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Anges Verts 0 – 0 New Jack

Anges Verts and New Jack drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on April 18, 2026.