Angers 0–4 Toulouse: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Angers

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Toulouse

N. Edjouma 90+4'

C. Cresswell 71'

V. Sierro 57'

F. Magri 51'

3/2/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Raymond Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Angers31%

×Draw26%

Toulouse43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AngersExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.43

Angers

1.18

Toulouse

1.43

Toulouse creates 21% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.35

1.50

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Angers

1.00

Toulouse

1.35

allows per match

Angers

1.50

Toulouse

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Angers+0.00on par

Toulouse+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Angers or draw

57%

Angers or Toulouse

74%

Draw or Toulouse

69%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+

13%

Toulouse wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals

69%

Angers 2+ goals

33%

Angers 3+ goals

12%

Toulouse 1+ goals

76%

Toulouse 2+ goals

42%

Toulouse 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)

42%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 27 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.00 + Toulouse defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Toulouse attack 1.35 + Angers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Angers scores more

31%

level

26%

Toulouse scores more

43%

Toulouse at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Cresswell

Toulouse · D

9.0

Match Events

45+2'

Jean-Eudes Aholou

45'

Frank Magri

46'

I. Niane← B. Dieng

51'

F. Magri↳ C. Cásseres

53'

Frank MagriGoal confirmed

57'

58'

66'

69'

71'

72'

J. Kalumba← F. El Melali

72'

P. Capelle← J. Aholou

76'

W. Kamanzi← R. Messali

76'

N. Edjouma← F. Magri

76'

J. Canvot← V. Sierro

83'

M. Courcoul← Y. Belkhdim

83'

84'

90+6'

90+6'

90+4'

N. Edjouma↳ W. Kamanzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AngersToulouse

Overview

46%Possession54%

5Total Shots19

0.35Expected Goals (xG)3.54

4Corners9

13Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots19

1On Target13

1Off Target3

3Blocked3

2Inside Box18

3Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

373Total Passes431

297Accurate Passes355

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

0.17Goals Prevented0.17

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2