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Angers vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 1 2018

Angers
Angers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
1/26/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Raymond-Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Angers41%
×Draw26%
Saint Etienne33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angers
1.42
Saint Etienne
1.24

Angers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 74 away

creates per match

Angers
1.14
Saint Etienne
1.11

allows per match

Angers
1.37
Saint Etienne
1.70

finishing

Angers+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Angers or draw
67%
Angers or Saint Etienne
74%
Draw or Saint Etienne
59%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+
20%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals
76%
Angers 2+ goals
41%
Angers 3+ goals
17%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
71%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
35%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)
56%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.37 · 121 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.14 + Saint Etienne defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Saint Etienne attack 1.11 + Angers defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Angers scores more
41%
level
26%
Saint Etienne scores more
33%

Angers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Angers 0–1 Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne beat Angers 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Angers.