Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Angers vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Angers
Angers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caen
Caen
11/27/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Raymond-Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Angers54%
×Draw24%
Caen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angers
1.66
Caen
0.94

Angers creates 77% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 107 away

creates per match

Angers
1.78
Caen
1.10

allows per match

Angers
0.78
Caen
1.53

finishing

Angers+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Angers or draw
79%
Angers or Caen
76%
Draw or Caen
46%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+
29%
Caen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals
81%
Angers 2+ goals
49%
Angers 3+ goals
23%
Caen 1+ goals
61%
Caen 2+ goals
24%
Caen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)
72%
Caen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.78 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Caen attack 1.10 + Angers defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Angers scores more
54%
level
24%
Caen scores more
21%

Angers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Angers 3–0 Caen

Angers beat Caen 3-0 in Ligue 2 on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Angers.