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Angered BK vs Vänersborgs FK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Angered BK
Angered BK
FT
4 – 1
Vänersborgs FK
Vänersborgs FK
10/23/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 30Hjällbovallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Angered BK46%
×Draw21%
Vänersborgs FK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angered BK
2.15
Vänersborgs FK
1.80

Angered BK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 94 away

creates per match

Angered BK
2.22
Vänersborgs FK
1.34

allows per match

Angered BK
2.26
Vänersborgs FK
2.07

finishing

Angered BK+0.00on par
Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angered BK ↓

Vänersborgs FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Angered BK or draw
67%
Angered BK or Vänersborgs FK
79%
Draw or Vänersborgs FK
54%

Winning margin

Angered BK wins by 2+
27%
Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Angered BK 1+ goals
88%
Angered BK 2+ goals
63%
Angered BK 3+ goals
36%
Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals
83%
Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals
54%
Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Angered BK (draw refunded)
58%
Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angered BK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 2.26 · 27 matches

Vänersborgs FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angered BK attack 2.22 + Vänersborgs FK defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.34 + Angered BK defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Angered BK scores more
46%
level
21%
Vänersborgs FK scores more
33%

Angered BK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Angered BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Angered BK 4–1 Vänersborgs FK

Angered BK beat Vänersborgs FK 4-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Hjällbovallen in Angered.