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Angered BK vs Nordvärmland — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Angered BK
Angered BK
FT
4 – 1
Nordvärmland
Nordvärmland
6/19/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 10Hjällbovallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Angered BK44%
×Draw21%
Nordvärmland35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angered BK
2.10
Nordvärmland
1.84

Angered BK creates 14% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 61 away

creates per match

Angered BK
2.22
Nordvärmland
1.43

allows per match

Angered BK
2.26
Nordvärmland
1.98

finishing

Angered BK+0.00on par
Nordvärmland+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angered BK ↓

Nordvärmland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Angered BK or draw
65%
Angered BK or Nordvärmland
79%
Draw or Nordvärmland
56%

Winning margin

Angered BK wins by 2+
25%
Nordvärmland wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Angered BK 1+ goals
88%
Angered BK 2+ goals
62%
Angered BK 3+ goals
35%
Nordvärmland 1+ goals
84%
Nordvärmland 2+ goals
55%
Nordvärmland 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Angered BK (draw refunded)
56%
Nordvärmland (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angered BK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 2.26 · 27 matches

Nordvärmland away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.98 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angered BK attack 2.22 + Nordvärmland defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.10

Nordvärmland attack 1.43 + Angered BK defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Angered BK scores more
44%
level
21%
Nordvärmland scores more
35%

Angered BK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Angered BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Angered BK 4–1 Nordvärmland

Angered BK beat Nordvärmland 4-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Hjällbovallen in Angered.