Angered BK 3–1 Mjölby: Result & Stats

Angered BK

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mjölby

6/26/2022

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 14Hjällbovallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Angered BK45%

×Draw22%

Mjölby33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angered BKExpected goals in this matchMjölby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.67

Angered BK

1.96

Mjölby

1.67

Angered BK creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

2.22

creates per match

1.08

2.26

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Angered BK

2.22

Mjölby

1.08

allows per match

Angered BK

2.26

Mjölby

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angered BK+0.00on par

Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angered BK ↓

Mjölby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Angered BK or draw

67%

Angered BK or Mjölby

78%

Draw or Mjölby

55%

Winning margin

Angered BK wins by 2+

25%

Mjölby wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Angered BK 1+ goals

86%

Angered BK 2+ goals

58%

Angered BK 3+ goals

31%

Mjölby 1+ goals

81%

Mjölby 2+ goals

50%

Mjölby 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Angered BK (draw refunded)

57%

Mjölby (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angered BK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 2.26 · 27 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angered BK attack 2.22 + Mjölby defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.96

Mjölby attack 1.08 + Angered BK defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Angered BK scores more

45%

level

22%

Mjölby scores more

33%

Angered BK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Angered BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff