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Angered BK vs Ahlafors — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Angered BK
Angered BK
FT
3 – 1
Ahlafors
Ahlafors
9/18/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 25Hjällbovallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Angered BK40%
×Draw21%
Ahlafors40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angered BK
2.06
Ahlafors
2.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 66 away

creates per match

Angered BK
2.22
Ahlafors
1.89

allows per match

Angered BK
2.26
Ahlafors
1.91

finishing

Angered BK+0.00on par
Ahlafors+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angered BK ↓

Ahlafors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Angered BK or draw
60%
Angered BK or Ahlafors
79%
Draw or Ahlafors
60%

Winning margin

Angered BK wins by 2+
22%
Ahlafors wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Angered BK 1+ goals
87%
Angered BK 2+ goals
61%
Angered BK 3+ goals
34%
Ahlafors 1+ goals
87%
Ahlafors 2+ goals
61%
Ahlafors 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Angered BK (draw refunded)
50%
Ahlafors (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angered BK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 2.26 · 27 matches

Ahlafors away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angered BK attack 2.22 + Ahlafors defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ahlafors attack 1.89 + Angered BK defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Angered BK scores more
40%
level
21%
Ahlafors scores more
40%

Angered BK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Angered BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angered BK vs Ahlafors

Angered BK beat Ahlafors 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Hjällbovallen in Angered.