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Angelholms FF vs Norrby IF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
8/2/2025Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 16Änglavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Angelholms FF34%
×Draw25%
Norrby IF41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angelholms FF
1.31
Norrby IF
1.48

Norrby IF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

creates per match

Angelholms FF
1.34
Norrby IF
1.56

allows per match

Angelholms FF
1.39
Norrby IF
1.27

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw
59%
Angelholms FF or Norrby IF
75%
Draw or Norrby IF
66%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+
15%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals
73%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
38%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
14%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
77%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
43%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
45%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 1.34 + Norrby IF defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Norrby IF attack 1.56 + Angelholms FF defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Angelholms FF scores more
34%
level
25%
Norrby IF scores more
41%

Norrby IF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Angelholms FF 0–4 Norrby IF

Norrby IF beat Angelholms FF 4-0 in Ettan - Södra on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Änglavallen in Ängelholm.