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Angelholms FF vs Norrby IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
8/18/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundÄnglavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Angelholms FF26%
×Draw23%
Norrby IF51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angelholms FF
1.27
Norrby IF
1.85

Norrby IF creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Angelholms FF
0.80
Norrby IF
0.50

allows per match

Angelholms FF
3.20
Norrby IF
1.75

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw
49%
Angelholms FF or Norrby IF
77%
Draw or Norrby IF
74%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+
11%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals
72%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
36%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
14%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
84%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
55%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
34%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 0.80 + Norrby IF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Norrby IF attack 0.50 + Angelholms FF defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Angelholms FF scores more
26%
level
23%
Norrby IF scores more
51%

Norrby IF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angelholms FF vs Norrby IF

Angelholms FF and Norrby IF drew 2-2 in Svenska Cupen on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Änglavallen in Ängelholm.