Angel City W vs Seattle Reign FC W

Angel City W

Preview

02:00

Seattle Reign FC W

9/17/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageBMO Stadium

42%

Angel City W

model favours

42%25%33%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Angel City W42%

×Draw25%

Seattle Reign FC W33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angel City WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.28

Angel City W

1.48

Seattle Reign FC W

1.28

Angel City W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

1.42

creates per match

1.19

1.38

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Angel City W

1.42

Seattle Reign FC W

1.19

allows per match

Angel City W

1.38

Seattle Reign FC W

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw

67%

Angel City W or Seattle Reign FC W

75%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

58%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+

20%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals

77%

Angel City W 2+ goals

43%

Angel City W 3+ goals

19%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

72%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

37%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)

56%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.42 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.19 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Angel City W scores more

42%

level

25%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

33%

Angel City W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Angel City W

Balanced

Seattle Reign FC W

Balanced

51%Possession46%

78%Pass accuracy76%

10.8ShotsBiggest gap8.7

—xG1.33

Angel City WSeattle Reign FC W

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

WWLLW

W

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff