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Angel City W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
8/28/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 11BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Angel City W39%
×Draw27%
Seattle Reign FC W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.33
Seattle Reign FC W
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 82 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
Seattle Reign FC W
1.12

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
Seattle Reign FC W
1.35

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
65%
Angel City W or Seattle Reign FC W
73%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
61%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
17%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
74%
Angel City W 2+ goals
38%
Angel City W 3+ goals
15%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
71%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
36%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
53%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.12 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Angel City W scores more
39%
level
27%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
35%

Angel City W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Angel City W 2–1 Seattle Reign FC W

Angel City W beat Seattle Reign FC W 2-1 in NWSL Women on August 28, 2023.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.