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Angel City W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Angel City W
Angel City W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
4/20/2023NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 1BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Angel City W26%
×Draw28%
Seattle Reign FC W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
0.93
Seattle Reign FC W
1.36

Seattle Reign FC W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.17
Seattle Reign FC W
1.40

allows per match

Angel City W
1.33
Seattle Reign FC W
0.70

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
53%
Angel City W or Seattle Reign FC W
72%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
74%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
9%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
61%
Angel City W 2+ goals
24%
Angel City W 3+ goals
7%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
74%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
39%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
35%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.17 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.40 + Angel City W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Angel City W scores more
26%
level
28%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
47%

Seattle Reign FC W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angel City W vs Seattle Reign FC W

Seattle Reign FC W beat Angel City W 2-0 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on April 20, 2023.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.