Angel City W 2–1 Portland Thorns W: Result & Stats

Angel City W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Portland Thorns W

7/30/2023

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 4BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Angel City W34%

×Draw32%

Portland Thorns W34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angel City WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

Angel City W

0.96

Portland Thorns W

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

0.58

1.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Angel City W

1.17

Portland Thorns W

0.58

allows per match

Angel City W

1.33

Portland Thorns W

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw

66%

Angel City W or Portland Thorns W

68%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

66%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+

13%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals

62%

Angel City W 2+ goals

25%

Angel City W 3+ goals

7%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

62%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

25%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)

50%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.17 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Portland Thorns W attack 0.58 + Angel City W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Angel City W scores more

34%

level

32%

Portland Thorns W scores more

34%

Angel City W at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff