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Angel City W vs Orlando Pride W — NWSL Women 2026

Angel City W
Angel City W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orlando Pride W
Orlando Pride W
8/22/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 17BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Angel City W41%
×Draw26%
Orlando Pride W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.42
Orlando Pride W
1.24

Angel City W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 81 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.30
Orlando Pride W
1.10

allows per match

Angel City W
1.38
Orlando Pride W
1.54

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Orlando Pride W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
67%
Angel City W or Orlando Pride W
74%
Draw or Orlando Pride W
59%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
20%
Orlando Pride W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
76%
Angel City W 2+ goals
41%
Angel City W 3+ goals
17%
Orlando Pride W 1+ goals
71%
Orlando Pride W 2+ goals
35%
Orlando Pride W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
56%
Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Orlando Pride W attack 1.10 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Angel City W scores more
41%
level
26%
Orlando Pride W scores more
33%

Angel City W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Angel City W 1–0 Orlando Pride W

Angel City W beat Orlando Pride W 1-0 in NWSL Women on August 22, 2025.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles.