Angel City W 1–3 Kansas City W: Result & Stats

Angel City W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Kansas City W

4/27/2024

NWSL Women · Round 5BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Angel City W39%

×Draw26%

Kansas City W35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angel City WExpected goals in this matchKansas City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.28

Angel City W

1.35

Kansas City W

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

1.30

creates per match

1.19

1.38

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Angel City W

1.30

Kansas City W

1.19

allows per match

Angel City W

1.38

Kansas City W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Kansas City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw

65%

Angel City W or Kansas City W

74%

Draw or Kansas City W

61%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+

18%

Kansas City W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals

74%

Angel City W 2+ goals

39%

Angel City W 3+ goals

15%

Kansas City W 1+ goals

72%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

37%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)

52%

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.30 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Angel City W scores more

39%

level

26%

Kansas City W scores more

35%

Angel City W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff