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Ang Thong FC vs Thai Honda FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ang Thong FC
Ang Thong FC
FT
2 – 1
Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
7/8/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 20Ang Thong Province Stadium (Ang Thong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ang Thong FC43%
×Draw23%
Thai Honda FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ang Thong FC
1.69
Thai Honda FC
1.48

Ang Thong FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ang Thong FC
1.86
Thai Honda FC
1.16

allows per match

Ang Thong FC
1.79
Thai Honda FC
1.52

finishing

Ang Thong FC+0.00on par
Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ang Thong FC ↓

Thai Honda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ang Thong FC or draw
66%
Ang Thong FC or Thai Honda FC
77%
Draw or Thai Honda FC
57%

Winning margin

Ang Thong FC wins by 2+
22%
Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ang Thong FC 1+ goals
82%
Ang Thong FC 2+ goals
50%
Ang Thong FC 3+ goals
24%
Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
77%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
43%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)
56%
Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ang Thong FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ang Thong FC attack 1.86 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Thai Honda FC attack 1.16 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ang Thong FC scores more
43%
level
23%
Thai Honda FC scores more
34%

Ang Thong FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ang Thong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ang Thong FC 2–1 Thai Honda FC

Ang Thong FC beat Thai Honda FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on July 8, 2018.

The match was played at Ang Thong Province Stadium (Ang Thong).