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Ang Thong FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Ang Thong FC
Ang Thong FC
FT
1 – 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
6/23/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 18Ang Thong Province Stadium (Ang Thong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ang Thong FC39%
×Draw24%
Nong Bua Pitchaya38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ang Thong FC
1.58
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ang Thong FC
1.86
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Ang Thong FC
1.79
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Ang Thong FC+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ang Thong FC ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ang Thong FC or draw
62%
Ang Thong FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya
76%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
61%

Winning margin

Ang Thong FC wins by 2+
19%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ang Thong FC 1+ goals
79%
Ang Thong FC 2+ goals
47%
Ang Thong FC 3+ goals
21%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
79%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
46%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)
51%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ang Thong FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ang Thong FC attack 1.86 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ang Thong FC scores more
39%
level
24%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
38%

Ang Thong FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ang Thong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ang Thong FC 1–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Ang Thong FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on June 23, 2018.

The match was played at Ang Thong Province Stadium (Ang Thong).