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Anenii Noi W vs Slovan Bratislava W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Anenii Noi W
Anenii Noi W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slovan Bratislava W
Slovan Bratislava W
8/13/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Qualifying Round - 3Národný Futbalový Štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Anenii Noi W35%
×Draw21%
Slovan Bratislava W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anenii Noi W
1.88
Slovan Bratislava W
2.13

Slovan Bratislava W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Anenii Noi W
0.00
Slovan Bratislava W
0.25

allows per match

Anenii Noi W
4.00
Slovan Bratislava W
3.75

finishing

Anenii Noi W+0.00on par
Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anenii Noi W ↓

Slovan Bratislava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Anenii Noi W or draw
56%
Anenii Noi W or Slovan Bratislava W
79%
Draw or Slovan Bratislava W
65%

Winning margin

Anenii Noi W wins by 2+
18%
Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Anenii Noi W 1+ goals
85%
Anenii Noi W 2+ goals
56%
Anenii Noi W 3+ goals
29%
Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals
88%
Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals
63%
Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Anenii Noi W (draw refunded)
44%
Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anenii Noi W at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Slovan Bratislava W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anenii Noi W attack 0.00 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Slovan Bratislava W attack 0.25 + Anenii Noi W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Anenii Noi W scores more
35%
level
21%
Slovan Bratislava W scores more
44%

Slovan Bratislava W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Anenii Noi W 0–1 Slovan Bratislava W

Slovan Bratislava W beat Anenii Noi W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 13, 2019.

The match was played at Národný Futbalový Štadión in Bratislava.