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Anenii Noi W vs Hajvalia W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Anenii Noi W
Anenii Noi W
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Hajvalia W
Hajvalia W
8/21/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - 3rd Place FinalsSportpark Het Diekman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Anenii Noi W23%
×Draw16%
Hajvalia W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anenii Noi W
2.17
Hajvalia W
3.50

Hajvalia W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Anenii Noi W
0.00
Hajvalia W
3.00

allows per match

Anenii Noi W
4.00
Hajvalia W
4.33

finishing

Anenii Noi W+0.00on par
Hajvalia W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anenii Noi W ↓

Hajvalia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Anenii Noi W or draw
39%
Anenii Noi W or Hajvalia W
84%
Draw or Hajvalia W
77%

Winning margin

Anenii Noi W wins by 2+
11%
Hajvalia W wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Anenii Noi W 1+ goals
89%
Anenii Noi W 2+ goals
64%
Anenii Noi W 3+ goals
36%
Hajvalia W 1+ goals
97%
Hajvalia W 2+ goals
85%
Hajvalia W 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Anenii Noi W (draw refunded)
27%
Hajvalia W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anenii Noi W at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Hajvalia W away — creates 3.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anenii Noi W attack 0.00 + Hajvalia W defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Hajvalia W attack 3.00 + Anenii Noi W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Anenii Noi W scores more
23%
level
16%
Hajvalia W scores more
61%

Hajvalia W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hajvalia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Anenii Noi W 0–7 Hajvalia W

Hajvalia W beat Anenii Noi W 7-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Diekman in Enschede.