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Anduud City vs Sumida Gepro — Premier League 2020

Anduud City
Anduud City
FT
2 – 0
Sumida Gepro
Sumida Gepro
9/20/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Anduud City56%
×Draw17%
Sumida Gepro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anduud City
3.11
Sumida Gepro
2.17

Anduud City creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Anduud City
1.11
Sumida Gepro
0.22

allows per match

Anduud City
4.11
Sumida Gepro
5.11

finishing

Anduud City+0.00on par
Sumida Gepro+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anduud City ↓

Sumida Gepro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Anduud City or draw
73%
Anduud City or Sumida Gepro
83%
Draw or Sumida Gepro
44%

Winning margin

Anduud City wins by 2+
37%
Sumida Gepro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Anduud City 1+ goals
95%
Anduud City 2+ goals
81%
Anduud City 3+ goals
58%
Sumida Gepro 1+ goals
89%
Sumida Gepro 2+ goals
64%
Sumida Gepro 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Anduud City (draw refunded)
68%
Sumida Gepro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anduud City at home — creates 1.11, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

Sumida Gepro away — creates 0.22, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anduud City attack 1.11 + Sumida Gepro defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 3.11

Sumida Gepro attack 0.22 + Anduud City defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Anduud City scores more
56%
level
17%
Sumida Gepro scores more
27%

Anduud City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Anduud City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anduud City vs Sumida Gepro

Anduud City beat Sumida Gepro 2-0 in Premier League on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.