Anduud City 2–14 Erchim: Result & Stats

Anduud City

FT

2 – 14

Erchim

9/27/2020

Premier League · Round 18Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Anduud City14%

×Draw14%

Erchim72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Anduud CityExpected goals in this matchErchim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

3.43

Anduud City

1.53

Erchim

3.43

Erchim creates 124% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 65 away

1.11

creates per match

2.74

4.11

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Anduud City

1.11

Erchim

2.74

allows per match

Anduud City

4.11

Erchim

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anduud City+0.00on par

Erchim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anduud City ↓

Erchim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Anduud City or draw

28%

Anduud City or Erchim

86%

Draw or Erchim

86%

Winning margin

Anduud City wins by 2+

6%

Erchim wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Anduud City 1+ goals

78%

Anduud City 2+ goals

45%

Anduud City 3+ goals

20%

Erchim 1+ goals

97%

Erchim 2+ goals

85%

Erchim 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Anduud City (draw refunded)

16%

Erchim (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anduud City at home — creates 1.11, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

Erchim away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anduud City attack 1.11 + Erchim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.53

Erchim attack 2.74 + Anduud City defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 3.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Anduud City scores more

14%

level

14%

Erchim scores more

72%

Erchim at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff