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Andraus Brasil vs Grêmio Maringá — Paranaense - 2 2020

Andraus Brasil
Andraus Brasil
FT
2 – 0
Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
4/29/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Andraus Brasil68%
×Draw20%
Grêmio Maringá12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andraus Brasil
2.05
Grêmio Maringá
0.72

Andraus Brasil creates 185% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Andraus Brasil
1.50
Grêmio Maringá
0.70

allows per match

Andraus Brasil
0.75
Grêmio Maringá
2.60

finishing

Andraus Brasil+0.00on par
Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andraus Brasil ↓

Grêmio Maringá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Andraus Brasil or draw
88%
Andraus Brasil or Grêmio Maringá
80%
Draw or Grêmio Maringá
32%

Winning margin

Andraus Brasil wins by 2+
43%
Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Andraus Brasil 1+ goals
87%
Andraus Brasil 2+ goals
61%
Andraus Brasil 3+ goals
33%
Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
51%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
16%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Andraus Brasil (draw refunded)
85%
Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andraus Brasil at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Grêmio Maringá away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andraus Brasil attack 1.50 + Grêmio Maringá defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.70 + Andraus Brasil defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Andraus Brasil scores more
68%
level
20%
Grêmio Maringá scores more
12%

Andraus Brasil at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Andraus Brasil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andraus Brasil vs Grêmio Maringá

Andraus Brasil beat Grêmio Maringá 2-0 in Paranaense - 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva in Curitiba, Paraná.