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Andraus Brasil vs Apucarana — Paranaense - 2 2020

Andraus Brasil
Andraus Brasil
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Apucarana
Apucarana
Unknown 88', 48', 27', 6'
6/17/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Andraus Brasil55%
×Draw26%
Apucarana19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andraus Brasil
1.50
Apucarana
0.77

Andraus Brasil creates 95% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

creates per match

Andraus Brasil
1.50
Apucarana
0.79

allows per match

Andraus Brasil
0.75
Apucarana
1.50

finishing

Andraus Brasil+0.00on par
Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andraus Brasil ↓

Apucarana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Andraus Brasil or draw
81%
Andraus Brasil or Apucarana
74%
Draw or Apucarana
45%

Winning margin

Andraus Brasil wins by 2+
28%
Apucarana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Andraus Brasil 1+ goals
78%
Andraus Brasil 2+ goals
44%
Andraus Brasil 3+ goals
19%
Apucarana 1+ goals
54%
Apucarana 2+ goals
18%
Apucarana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Andraus Brasil (draw refunded)
74%
Apucarana (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andraus Brasil at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andraus Brasil attack 1.50 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Andraus Brasil defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Andraus Brasil scores more
55%
level
26%
Apucarana scores more
19%

Andraus Brasil at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Andraus Brasil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
27'
48'
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Andraus Brasil 4 – 0 Apucarana

Andraus Brasil beat Apucarana 4-0 in Paranaense - 2 on June 17, 2023.

Goals: ? (6', 27', 48', 88').

The match was played at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva in Curitiba, Paraná.