Andraus Brasil U20 1–2 Prudentópolis U20

Andraus Brasil U20

FT

1 – 2

Prudentópolis U20

5/18/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 10CT Andraus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Andraus Brasil U2058%

×Draw18%

Prudentópolis U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Andraus Brasil U20Expected goals in this matchPrudentópolis U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.64

Andraus Brasil U20

2.63

Prudentópolis U20

1.64

Andraus Brasil U20 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.60

creates per match

0.67

2.60

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Andraus Brasil U20

0.60

Prudentópolis U20

0.67

allows per match

Andraus Brasil U20

2.60

Prudentópolis U20

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andraus Brasil U20+0.00on par

Prudentópolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andraus Brasil U20 ↓

Prudentópolis U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Andraus Brasil U20 or draw

77%

Andraus Brasil U20 or Prudentópolis U20

82%

Draw or Prudentópolis U20

42%

Winning margin

Andraus Brasil U20 wins by 2+

38%

Prudentópolis U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Andraus Brasil U20 1+ goals

93%

Andraus Brasil U20 2+ goals

73%

Andraus Brasil U20 3+ goals

48%

Prudentópolis U20 1+ goals

81%

Prudentópolis U20 2+ goals

49%

Prudentópolis U20 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Andraus Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Prudentópolis U20 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andraus Brasil U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Prudentópolis U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andraus Brasil U20 attack 0.60 + Prudentópolis U20 defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Prudentópolis U20 attack 0.67 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Andraus Brasil U20 scores more

58%

level

18%

Prudentópolis U20 scores more

23%

Andraus Brasil U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Andraus Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff