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Andraus Brasil U20 vs Paraná U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Andraus Brasil U20
Andraus Brasil U20
FT
0 – 1
Paraná U20
Paraná U20
4/20/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 6CT Andraus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Andraus Brasil U2024%
×Draw23%
Paraná U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andraus Brasil U20
1.12
Paraná U20
1.80

Paraná U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Andraus Brasil U20
0.60
Paraná U20
1.00

allows per match

Andraus Brasil U20
2.60
Paraná U20
1.64

finishing

Andraus Brasil U20+0.00on par
Paraná U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andraus Brasil U20 ↓

Paraná U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Andraus Brasil U20 or draw
47%
Andraus Brasil U20 or Paraná U20
77%
Draw or Paraná U20
76%

Winning margin

Andraus Brasil U20 wins by 2+
9%
Paraná U20 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Andraus Brasil U20 1+ goals
67%
Andraus Brasil U20 2+ goals
31%
Andraus Brasil U20 3+ goals
10%
Paraná U20 1+ goals
83%
Paraná U20 2+ goals
54%
Paraná U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Andraus Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
31%
Paraná U20 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andraus Brasil U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Paraná U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andraus Brasil U20 attack 0.60 + Paraná U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.12

Paraná U20 attack 1.00 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Andraus Brasil U20 scores more
24%
level
23%
Paraná U20 scores more
53%

Paraná U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paraná U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Andraus Brasil U20 0–1 Paraná U20

Paraná U20 beat Andraus Brasil U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at CT Andraus in Colônia Dom Pedro II - Campo Largo.