Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Andraus Brasil U20 vs Coritiba U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Andraus Brasil U20
Andraus Brasil U20
FT
1 – 5
Coritiba U20
Coritiba U20
4/27/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 7CT Andraus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Andraus Brasil U2014%
×Draw21%
Coritiba U2065%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andraus Brasil U20
0.77
Coritiba U20
1.97

Coritiba U20 creates 156% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Andraus Brasil U20
0.60
Coritiba U20
1.33

allows per match

Andraus Brasil U20
2.60
Coritiba U20
0.95

finishing

Andraus Brasil U20+0.00on par
Coritiba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andraus Brasil U20 ↓

Coritiba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Andraus Brasil U20 or draw
35%
Andraus Brasil U20 or Coritiba U20
79%
Draw or Coritiba U20
86%

Winning margin

Andraus Brasil U20 wins by 2+
4%
Coritiba U20 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Andraus Brasil U20 1+ goals
54%
Andraus Brasil U20 2+ goals
18%
Andraus Brasil U20 3+ goals
4%
Coritiba U20 1+ goals
86%
Coritiba U20 2+ goals
58%
Coritiba U20 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Andraus Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
17%
Coritiba U20 (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andraus Brasil U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Coritiba U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andraus Brasil U20 attack 0.60 + Coritiba U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Coritiba U20 attack 1.33 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Andraus Brasil U20 scores more
14%
level
21%
Coritiba U20 scores more
65%

Coritiba U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Coritiba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andraus Brasil U20 vs Coritiba U20

Coritiba U20 beat Andraus Brasil U20 5-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at CT Andraus in Colônia Dom Pedro II - Campo Largo.