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Andraus Brasil U20 vs Batel U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Andraus Brasil U20
Andraus Brasil U20
FT
1 – 3
Batel U20
Batel U20
4/6/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 4CT Andraus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Andraus Brasil U2012%
×Draw18%
Batel U2069%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andraus Brasil U20
0.80
Batel U20
2.21

Batel U20 creates 176% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Andraus Brasil U20
0.60
Batel U20
1.83

allows per match

Andraus Brasil U20
2.60
Batel U20
1.00

finishing

Andraus Brasil U20+0.00on par
Batel U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andraus Brasil U20 ↓

Batel U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Andraus Brasil U20 or draw
31%
Andraus Brasil U20 or Batel U20
82%
Draw or Batel U20
88%

Winning margin

Andraus Brasil U20 wins by 2+
4%
Batel U20 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Andraus Brasil U20 1+ goals
55%
Andraus Brasil U20 2+ goals
19%
Andraus Brasil U20 3+ goals
5%
Batel U20 1+ goals
89%
Batel U20 2+ goals
65%
Batel U20 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Andraus Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
15%
Batel U20 (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andraus Brasil U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Batel U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andraus Brasil U20 attack 0.60 + Batel U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Batel U20 attack 1.83 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Andraus Brasil U20 scores more
12%
level
18%
Batel U20 scores more
69%

Batel U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Batel U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Andraus Brasil U20 1–3 Batel U20

Batel U20 beat Andraus Brasil U20 3-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at CT Andraus in Colônia Dom Pedro II - Campo Largo.