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Andratx vs Esporles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Andratx
Andratx
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Esporles
Esporles
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 27Estadio Sa Plana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Andratx72%
×Draw18%
Esporles10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andratx
2.20
Esporles
0.66

Andratx creates 233% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

creates per match

Andratx
2.21
Esporles
0.57

allows per match

Andratx
0.74
Esporles
2.18

finishing

Andratx+0.00on par
Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andratx ↓

Esporles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Andratx or draw
90%
Andratx or Esporles
82%
Draw or Esporles
28%

Winning margin

Andratx wins by 2+
48%
Esporles wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Andratx 1+ goals
89%
Andratx 2+ goals
64%
Andratx 3+ goals
37%
Esporles 1+ goals
48%
Esporles 2+ goals
14%
Esporles 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Andratx (draw refunded)
88%
Esporles (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andratx at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andratx attack 2.21 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.20

Esporles attack 0.57 + Andratx defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Andratx scores more
72%
level
18%
Esporles scores more
10%

Andratx at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andratx vs Esporles

Andratx beat Esporles 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Sa Plana in Andratx.