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Andráshida vs Zalaegerszegi TE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Andráshida
Andráshida
FT
2 – 5
Zalaegerszegi TE II
Zalaegerszegi TE II
5/15/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 36Andráshida SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Andráshida27%
×Draw23%
Zalaegerszegi TE II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andráshida
1.25
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.79

Zalaegerszegi TE II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Andráshida
0.74
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.11

allows per match

Andráshida
2.47
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.77

finishing

Andráshida+0.00on par
Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andráshida ↓

Zalaegerszegi TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Andráshida or draw
50%
Andráshida or Zalaegerszegi TE II
77%
Draw or Zalaegerszegi TE II
73%

Winning margin

Andráshida wins by 2+
11%
Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Andráshida 1+ goals
71%
Andráshida 2+ goals
36%
Andráshida 3+ goals
13%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals
83%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Andráshida (draw refunded)
35%
Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andráshida at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andráshida attack 0.74 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.11 + Andráshida defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Andráshida scores more
27%
level
23%
Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more
50%

Zalaegerszegi TE II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zalaegerszegi TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andráshida vs Zalaegerszegi TE II

Zalaegerszegi TE II beat Andráshida 5-2 in NB III - Southwest on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Andráshida SC Sporttelep in Andráshida.