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Andráshida vs Pápai Perutz — NB III - Southwest 2019

Andráshida
Andráshida
FT
0 – 3
Pápai Perutz
Pápai Perutz
9/1/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 5Andráshida SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Andráshida17%
×Draw22%
Pápai Perutz61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andráshida
0.87
Pápai Perutz
1.88

Pápai Perutz creates 116% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

creates per match

Andráshida
0.74
Pápai Perutz
1.28

allows per match

Andráshida
2.47
Pápai Perutz
1.00

finishing

Andráshida+0.00on par
Pápai Perutz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andráshida ↓

Pápai Perutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Andráshida or draw
39%
Andráshida or Pápai Perutz
78%
Draw or Pápai Perutz
83%

Winning margin

Andráshida wins by 2+
5%
Pápai Perutz wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Andráshida 1+ goals
58%
Andráshida 2+ goals
22%
Andráshida 3+ goals
6%
Pápai Perutz 1+ goals
85%
Pápai Perutz 2+ goals
56%
Pápai Perutz 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Andráshida (draw refunded)
22%
Pápai Perutz (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andráshida at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Pápai Perutz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andráshida attack 0.74 + Pápai Perutz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.87

Pápai Perutz attack 1.28 + Andráshida defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Andráshida scores more
17%
level
22%
Pápai Perutz scores more
61%

Pápai Perutz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pápai Perutz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Andráshida 0–3 Pápai Perutz

Pápai Perutz beat Andráshida 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Andráshida SC Sporttelep in Andráshida.