Andranik 3–2 Nikarm: Result & Stats | First League

Andranik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Nikarm

9/28/2024

First League · Round 7Sevan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Andranik77%

×Draw13%

Nikarm10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndranikExpected goals in this matchNikarm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

1.02

Andranik

3.06

Nikarm

1.02

Andranik creates 200% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

1.85

creates per match

0.73

1.32

allows per match

4.27

creates per match

Andranik

1.85

Nikarm

0.73

allows per match

Andranik

1.32

Nikarm

4.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andranik+0.00on par

Nikarm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andranik ↓

Nikarm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Andranik or draw

90%

Andranik or Nikarm

87%

Draw or Nikarm

23%

Winning margin

Andranik wins by 2+

58%

Nikarm wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Andranik 1+ goals

95%

Andranik 2+ goals

80%

Andranik 3+ goals

57%

Nikarm 1+ goals

64%

Nikarm 2+ goals

27%

Nikarm 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Andranik (draw refunded)

89%

Nikarm (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andranik at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Nikarm away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andranik attack 1.85 + Nikarm defence 4.27 → ÷2 → 3.06

Nikarm attack 0.73 + Andranik defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Andranik scores more

77%

level

13%

Nikarm scores more

10%

Andranik at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Andranik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff