Andranik 2–3 Alashkert II: Result & Stats

Andranik

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Alashkert II

11/29/2023

First League · Round 16Sevan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Andranik57%

×Draw20%

Alashkert II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndranikExpected goals in this matchAlashkert II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.35

Andranik

2.21

Alashkert II

1.35

Andranik creates 64% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 64 away

1.85

creates per match

1.39

1.32

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Andranik

1.85

Alashkert II

1.39

allows per match

Andranik

1.32

Alashkert II

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andranik+0.00on par

Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andranik ↓

Alashkert II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Andranik or draw

77%

Andranik or Alashkert II

80%

Draw or Alashkert II

43%

Winning margin

Andranik wins by 2+

35%

Alashkert II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Andranik 1+ goals

89%

Andranik 2+ goals

65%

Andranik 3+ goals

38%

Alashkert II 1+ goals

74%

Alashkert II 2+ goals

39%

Alashkert II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Andranik (draw refunded)

71%

Alashkert II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andranik at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andranik attack 1.85 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.21

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Andranik defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Andranik scores more

57%

level

20%

Alashkert II scores more

23%

Andranik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Andranik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff