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Andorra W vs Saudi Arabia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Andorra W
Andorra W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
Unknown 90+1', 77'
Tere 20'
6/17/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Andorra W62%
×Draw21%
Saudi Arabia W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andorra W
2.04
Saudi Arabia W
0.96

Andorra W creates 113% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Andorra W
3.00
Saudi Arabia W
1.25

allows per match

Andorra W
0.67
Saudi Arabia W
1.08

finishing

Andorra W+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra W ↓

Saudi Arabia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Andorra W or draw
83%
Andorra W or Saudi Arabia W
79%
Draw or Saudi Arabia W
38%

Winning margin

Andorra W wins by 2+
38%
Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Andorra W 1+ goals
87%
Andorra W 2+ goals
60%
Andorra W 3+ goals
33%
Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
62%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
25%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Andorra W (draw refunded)
78%
Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Saudi Arabia W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra W attack 3.00 + Saudi Arabia W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.25 + Andorra W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Andorra W scores more
62%
level
21%
Saudi Arabia W scores more
17%

Andorra W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Andorra W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Tere
49'
J. Tariq← J. Tariq
74'
M. Fatimah← M. Fatimah
77'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andorra W vs Saudi Arabia W

Andorra W beat Saudi Arabia W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on June 17, 2023.

Goals: Tere (20'), ? (77', 90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.