Andorra 1–1 South Africa: Result & Stats

Andorra

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

South Africa

3/21/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade du 19 Mai 1956

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Andorra50%

×Draw27%

South Africa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndorraExpected goals in this matchSouth Africa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Andorra

1.45

South Africa

0.90

Andorra creates 61% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

0.90

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Andorra

0.90

South Africa

1.00

allows per match

Andorra

0.80

South Africa

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andorra+0.00on par

South Africa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra ↓

South Africa →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Andorra or draw

77%

Andorra or South Africa

73%

Draw or South Africa

50%

Winning margin

Andorra wins by 2+

25%

South Africa wins by 2+

Team goals

Andorra 1+ goals

77%

Andorra 2+ goals

42%

Andorra 3+ goals

18%

South Africa 1+ goals

59%

South Africa 2+ goals

23%

South Africa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Andorra (draw refunded)

68%

South Africa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Andorra at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

South Africa away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Andorra attack 0.90 + South Africa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

South Africa attack 1.00 + Andorra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Andorra scores more

50%

level

27%

South Africa scores more

23%

Andorra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff