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andorra vs Faroe Islands — Friendlies 2026

andorra
andorra
CANC
00:00
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
3/30/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Stade Amahoro (Kigali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

andorra46%
×Draw30%
Faroe Islands24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

andorra
1.23
Faroe Islands
0.81

andorra creates 52% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

andorra
0.90
Faroe Islands
0.82

allows per match

andorra
0.80
Faroe Islands
1.55

finishing

andorra+0.00on par
Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

andorra ↓

Faroe Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

andorra or draw
76%
andorra or Faroe Islands
70%
Draw or Faroe Islands
54%

Winning margin

andorra wins by 2+
21%
Faroe Islands wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

andorra 1+ goals
71%
andorra 2+ goals
35%
andorra 3+ goals
13%
Faroe Islands 1+ goals
56%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
19%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

andorra (draw refunded)
65%
Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

andorra at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

andorra attack 0.90 + Faroe Islands defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Faroe Islands attack 0.82 + andorra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

andorra scores more
46%
level
30%
Faroe Islands scores more
24%

andorra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

andorra face Faroe Islands (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with andorra hosting Faroe Islands. Match starts March 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

andorra host Faroe Islands at Stade Amahoro (Kigali).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.