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andorra vs Equatorial Guinea — Friendlies 2026

andorra
andorra
CANC
00:00
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
3/25/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

andorra46%
×Draw31%
Equatorial Guinea23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

andorra
1.14
Equatorial Guinea
0.72

andorra creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

andorra
0.90
Equatorial Guinea
0.63

allows per match

andorra
0.80
Equatorial Guinea
1.38

finishing

andorra+0.00on par
Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

andorra ↓

Equatorial Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

andorra or draw
77%
andorra or Equatorial Guinea
69%
Draw or Equatorial Guinea
54%

Winning margin

andorra wins by 2+
20%
Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

andorra 1+ goals
68%
andorra 2+ goals
32%
andorra 3+ goals
11%
Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
51%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
16%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

andorra (draw refunded)
66%
Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

andorra at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

andorra attack 0.90 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.63 + andorra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

andorra scores more
46%
level
31%
Equatorial Guinea scores more
23%

andorra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: andorra host Equatorial Guinea

March 25, 2018: andorra take on Equatorial Guinea in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.