Andorra U19 0–6 Switzerland U19: Result & Stats

Andorra U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 5

Switzerland U19

T. Mühlethaler 65'

F. De Carvalho Ferreira 45', 43', 7'

B. Fink 36'

M. Willimann 33' (pen)

11/16/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Andorra U1915%

×Draw20%

Switzerland U1964%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Andorra U19Expected goals in this matchSwitzerland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.04

Andorra U19

0.88

Switzerland U19

2.04

Switzerland U19 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

0.67

creates per match

1.92

2.17

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Andorra U19

0.67

Switzerland U19

1.92

allows per match

Andorra U19

2.17

Switzerland U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Andorra U19 or draw

36%

Andorra U19 or Switzerland U19

80%

Draw or Switzerland U19

85%

Winning margin

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

5%

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Andorra U19 1+ goals

59%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

22%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

6%

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

87%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

60%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra U19 attack 0.67 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Switzerland U19 attack 1.92 + Andorra U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Andorra U19 scores more

15%

level

20%

Switzerland U19 scores more

64%

Switzerland U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Switzerland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

F. De Carvalho Ferreira

33'

M. WillimannPenalty

36'

B. Fink

43'

F. De Carvalho Ferreira

45'

F. De Carvalho Ferreira

55'

Ian Oliveira← Gerard García

55'

Eric Sanjuame← Alessio Burgos

61'

T. Mühlethaler← B. Fink

61'

S. Schwegler← C. Chiappetta

65'

T. Mühlethaler

73'

M. Sawadogo← F. De Carvalho Ferreira

79'

S. Ottiger← L. Bollati

83'

Gino Romano← Eric Martinez

90'

Daniel Bienert← Pau Torra

90'

Marco Da Silva Machado← Martí Calvo

Andorra

Switzerland

12

Nitti

16

▼

15

2

8

6

⚽

Willimann

14

Hasani

9

⚽

▼

Fink

11

▼

Chiappett

17

⚽3

▼

7

13

4

2

20

▼

Burgos

18

Carvalho

10

Müller

3

▼

Torra

14

▼

Calvo

11

▼

García

9

▼

Martinez

7

Rente

Manager: Eloy Casals

55'▲Ian Oliveira←▼Gerard García

55'▲Eric Sanjuame←▼Alessio Burgos

83'▲Gino Romano←▼Eric Martinez

90'▲Daniel Bienert←▼Pau Torra

90'▲Marco Da Silva Machado←▼Martí Calvo

Andorra U19 substitutes

5Oliveira15Sanjuame17Romano6Bienert22Machado1Alvarez8Silva19Rodrigues23Burgos

Manager: B. Berner

61'▲T. Mühlethaler←▼B. Fink

61'▲S. Schwegler←▼C. Chiappetta

73'▲M. Sawadogo←▼F. De Carvalho Ferreira

79'▲S. Ottiger←▼L. Bollati

Switzerland U19 substitutes

18Mühlethaler19Schwegler3Sawadogo20Ottiger1Loretz4Amenda10Rupp