Andorra U19 0–1 Cyprus U19: Result & Stats

Andorra U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cyprus U19

A. Nikolaou 7'

11/18/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Andorra U1935%

×Draw26%

Cyprus U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Andorra U19Expected goals in this matchCyprus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.38

Andorra U19

1.29

Cyprus U19

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

0.67

creates per match

0.58

2.17

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Andorra U19

0.67

Cyprus U19

0.58

allows per match

Andorra U19

2.17

Cyprus U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra U19 ↓

Cyprus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Andorra U19 or draw

61%

Andorra U19 or Cyprus U19

74%

Draw or Cyprus U19

65%

Winning margin

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

15%

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Andorra U19 1+ goals

72%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

37%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

14%

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

75%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

40%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Cyprus U19 away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra U19 attack 0.67 + Cyprus U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cyprus U19 attack 0.58 + Andorra U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Andorra U19 scores more

35%

level

26%

Cyprus U19 scores more

39%

Cyprus U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cyprus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

24'

28'

45'

46'

K. Panagiotou← K. Lytras

50'

C. Garcia

64'

Haroun← Abdulakim Gracia

64'

C. Kattirtzis← P. Kattirtzis

64'

P. Paschali← M. Parlatas

68'

A. Nikolaou

72'

S. Sofokleous

75'

Biel Struve← Manel Anglada

75'

Didi← Cerni García

76'

P. Markou← P. Angeli

82'

A. Bisbal

82'

Y. Santaella

86'

Bernat Arderiu← Joel Moutinho

90+4'

A. Antreou

90+1'

A. Andreou← A. Nikolaou

Andorra

Cyprus

12

Ortelli

3

⚽

▼

Nikolaou

19

Sokratous

5

Kyriakou

16

▼

Parlatas

8

Andreou

14

▼

Angeli

10

▼

Kattirtzi

13

▼

7

9

13

20

4

18

21

▼

Moutinho

3

Sa

6

Santaella

16

▼

Anglada

2

▼

García

19

Rodríguez

22

▼

Gracia

Manager: Óscar Sonejee

64'▲Haroun←▼Abdulakim Gracia

75'▲Biel Struve←▼Manel Anglada

75'▲Didi←▼Cerni García

86'▲Bernat Arderiu←▼Joel Moutinho

Andorra U19 substitutes

7Haroun11Struve23Didi14Arderiu1Heredia

Manager: V. Koulountis

46'▲K. Panagiotou←▼K. Lytras

64'▲C. Kattirtzis←▼P. Kattirtzis

64'▲P. Paschali←▼M. Parlatas

76'▲P. Markou←▼P. Angeli

90+1'▲A. Andreou←▼A. Nikolaou

Cyprus U19 substitutes

18Panagiotou17Kattirtzis2Paschali6Markou15Andreou1Pishias20Vasiliou4Giannakou

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Andorra U19 0–1 Cyprus U19

Cyprus U19 beat Andorra U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2024.

Goals: A. Nikolaou (7').

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.

Andorra U19 vs Cyprus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Andorra U19 0–1 Cyprus U19