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Andorra U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Andorra U19
Andorra U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19
11/21/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Andorra U1924%
×Draw25%
Bulgaria U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andorra U19
0.99
Bulgaria U19
1.58

Bulgaria U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Andorra U19
0.67
Bulgaria U19
1.00

allows per match

Andorra U19
2.17
Bulgaria U19
1.30

finishing

Andorra U19+0.00on par
Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra U19 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Andorra U19 or draw
49%
Andorra U19 or Bulgaria U19
75%
Draw or Bulgaria U19
76%

Winning margin

Andorra U19 wins by 2+
8%
Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Andorra U19 1+ goals
63%
Andorra U19 2+ goals
26%
Andorra U19 3+ goals
8%
Bulgaria U19 1+ goals
79%
Bulgaria U19 2+ goals
47%
Bulgaria U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)
32%
Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra U19 attack 0.67 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.00 + Andorra U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Andorra U19 scores more
24%
level
25%
Bulgaria U19 scores more
51%

Bulgaria U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Andorra U19 2–1 Bulgaria U19

Andorra U19 beat Bulgaria U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.