Andorra U17 1–2 Bulgaria U17: Result & Stats

Andorra U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bulgaria U17

10/31/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Árok utcai pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Andorra U1713%

×Draw17%

Bulgaria U1769%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Andorra U17Expected goals in this matchBulgaria U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

2.45

Andorra U17

0.98

Bulgaria U17

2.45

Bulgaria U17 creates 150% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.14

creates per match

2.33

2.57

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Andorra U17

1.14

Bulgaria U17

2.33

allows per match

Andorra U17

2.57

Bulgaria U17

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andorra U17+0.00on par

Bulgaria U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra U17 ↓

Bulgaria U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Andorra U17 or draw

31%

Andorra U17 or Bulgaria U17

83%

Draw or Bulgaria U17

87%

Winning margin

Andorra U17 wins by 2+

4%

Bulgaria U17 wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Andorra U17 1+ goals

62%

Andorra U17 2+ goals

26%

Andorra U17 3+ goals

8%

Bulgaria U17 1+ goals

91%

Bulgaria U17 2+ goals

70%

Bulgaria U17 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Andorra U17 (draw refunded)

16%

Bulgaria U17 (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra U17 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Bulgaria U17 away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra U17 attack 1.14 + Bulgaria U17 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Bulgaria U17 attack 2.33 + Andorra U17 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Andorra U17 scores more

13%

level

17%

Bulgaria U17 scores more

69%

Bulgaria U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bulgaria U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff