Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Andorra CF vs Fuentes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Andorra CF
Andorra CF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fuentes
Fuentes
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 26Estadio Juan Antonio Endeiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Andorra CF50%
×Draw26%
Fuentes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andorra CF
1.48
Fuentes
0.94

Andorra CF creates 57% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Andorra CF
1.29
Fuentes
0.74

allows per match

Andorra CF
1.15
Fuentes
1.68

finishing

Andorra CF+0.00on par
Fuentes+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra CF ↓

Fuentes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Andorra CF or draw
76%
Andorra CF or Fuentes
74%
Draw or Fuentes
50%

Winning margin

Andorra CF wins by 2+
25%
Fuentes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Andorra CF 1+ goals
77%
Andorra CF 2+ goals
43%
Andorra CF 3+ goals
19%
Fuentes 1+ goals
61%
Fuentes 2+ goals
24%
Fuentes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Andorra CF (draw refunded)
67%
Fuentes (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra CF at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Fuentes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra CF attack 1.29 + Fuentes defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fuentes attack 0.74 + Andorra CF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Andorra CF scores more
50%
level
26%
Fuentes scores more
24%

Andorra CF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Andorra CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andorra CF vs Fuentes

Fuentes beat Andorra CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Endeiza in Teruel.