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Andorra CF vs Fraga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Andorra CF
Andorra CF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fraga
Fraga
1/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 16Estadio Juan Antonio Endeiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Andorra CF44%
×Draw27%
Fraga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andorra CF
1.39
Fraga
1.10

Andorra CF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 65 away

creates per match

Andorra CF
1.29
Fraga
1.06

allows per match

Andorra CF
1.15
Fraga
1.49

finishing

Andorra CF+0.00on par
Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra CF ↓

Fraga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Andorra CF or draw
70%
Andorra CF or Fraga
73%
Draw or Fraga
56%

Winning margin

Andorra CF wins by 2+
21%
Fraga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Andorra CF 1+ goals
75%
Andorra CF 2+ goals
40%
Andorra CF 3+ goals
16%
Fraga 1+ goals
67%
Fraga 2+ goals
30%
Fraga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Andorra CF (draw refunded)
59%
Fraga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra CF at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra CF attack 1.29 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fraga attack 1.06 + Andorra CF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Andorra CF scores more
44%
level
27%
Fraga scores more
30%

Andorra CF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Andorra CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Andorra CF 2–0 Fraga

Andorra CF beat Fraga 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Endeiza in Teruel.