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Andijan vs Olympic — Super League 2026

Andijan
Andijan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Olympic
Olympic
8/21/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Andijan39%
×Draw27%
Olympic34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andijan
1.31
Olympic
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 39 away

creates per match

Andijan
1.16
Olympic
1.18

allows per match

Andijan
1.22
Olympic
1.46

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Andijan or draw
66%
Andijan or Olympic
73%
Draw or Olympic
61%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+
18%
Olympic wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals
73%
Andijan 2+ goals
38%
Andijan 3+ goals
14%
Olympic 1+ goals
70%
Olympic 2+ goals
34%
Olympic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)
54%
Olympic (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.22 · 86 matches

Olympic away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.16 + Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olympic attack 1.18 + Andijan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Andijan scores more
39%
level
27%
Olympic scores more
34%

Andijan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Andijan 2–1 Olympic

Andijan beat Olympic 2-1 in Super League on August 21, 2023.

The match was played at Bobur Arena in Andijan.