Andijan 1–2 Olmaliq: Result & Stats | Super League

Andijan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Olmaliq

I. Yuldashev 86'

U. Kojic 36'

N. Abdurazzakov 29'

4/12/2026

Super League · Round 7Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Andijan34%

×Draw23%

Olmaliq43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.73

Andijan

1.50

Olmaliq

1.73

Olmaliq creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

1.21

2.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Andijan

1.50

Olmaliq

1.21

allows per match

Andijan

2.25

Olmaliq

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

57%

Andijan or Olmaliq

77%

Draw or Olmaliq

66%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

16%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

78%

Andijan 2+ goals

44%

Andijan 3+ goals

19%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

82%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

52%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

44%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.50 + Olmaliq defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Olmaliq attack 1.21 + Andijan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Andijan scores more

34%

level

23%

Olmaliq scores more

43%

Olmaliq at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

29'

30'

36'

40'

I. Yuldashev← M. Makhamadzhonov

46'

D. Abdumannopov← U. Ismonaliev

46'

J. Boltaboev← M. Toirov

46'

D. Ceran← M. Boakye

65'

A. Abdurakhmonov← U. Kojic

65'

N. Senaga← A. Kholmurodov

69'

S. Sodikov← A. Turgunboev

82'

A. Sobirzhonov← N. Abdurazzakov

82'

A. Turdialiev← G. Papava

86'

I. Yuldashev

90'

S. Toirov← S. Haghnazari

Andijan

Olmaliq

35

7

44

6

22

5

▼

Papava

17

⚽

▼

Abdurazza

88

▼

Haghnazar

4

Kosimov

9

▼

Kholmurod

27

⚽

▼

35

5

20

15

77

▼

Makhamadz

26

▼

Toirov

6

Andronika

17

▼

Turgunboe

7

Kholdorkh

22

▼

Ismonalie

27

▼

Boakye

Manager: Samvel Babayan

40'▲I. Yuldashev←▼M. Makhamadzhonov

46'▲D. Abdumannopov←▼U. Ismonaliev

46'▲J. Boltaboev←▼M. Toirov

46'▲D. Ceran←▼M. Boakye

69'▲S. Sodikov←▼A. Turgunboev

Andijan substitutes

1Adkhamov14Komilov23Abdumannopov2Abdumazhidov8Boltaboev10Ceran9Ashortia3Yuldashev19Sodikov

Manager: Mirdzhalol Kasymov

65'▲A. Abdurakhmonov←▼U. Kojic

65'▲N. Senaga←▼A. Kholmurodov

82'▲A. Sobirzhonov←▼N. Abdurazzakov

82'▲A. Turdialiev←▼G. Papava

90'▲S. Toirov←▼S. Haghnazari

Olmaliq substitutes

13Begimov11Abdurakhmonov28Sentoku16Senaga10Sobirzhonov23Abdunabiev8Turdialiev3Toirov18Islamov