Andijan 0–2 Neftchi: Result & Stats | Super League

Andijan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Neftchi

J. Iskanderov 60'

F. Sayfiev 11'

5/9/2025

Super League · Round 9Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Andijan29%

×Draw28%

Neftchi43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.29

Andijan

0.99

Neftchi

1.29

Neftchi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 61 away

1.19

creates per match

1.31

1.26

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Andijan

1.19

Neftchi

1.31

allows per match

Andijan

1.26

Neftchi

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Neftchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

57%

Andijan or Neftchi

72%

Draw or Neftchi

71%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

10%

Neftchi wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

63%

Andijan 2+ goals

26%

Andijan 3+ goals

8%

Neftchi 1+ goals

72%

Neftchi 2+ goals

37%

Neftchi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

40%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.99

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Andijan scores more

29%

level

28%

Neftchi scores more

43%

Neftchi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

F. Sayfiev↳ G. Gulyamov

46'

D. Abdumannopov← S. Azimov

60'

J. Iskanderov↳ A. Ismoilov

66'

M. Mehanovic← I. Abduganiev

66'

F. Sokhibzhonov← B. Abdumannonov

66'

J. Boltaboev← I. Alibaev

77'

U. Ismonaliev← R. Turdimurodov

77'

B. Toshmirzaev← K. Ruziev

77'

T. Tabatadze← Z. Marusic

84'

I. Mashukov← A. Gulomov

86'

D. Abdumannopov

88'

A. Gofurov

90+3'

M. Giyosov← J. Iskanderov

Andijan

Neftchi

1

4

20

21

10

⚽

▼

Iskandero

34

⚽

Sayfiev

11

▼

Ruziev

5

▼

Alibaev

24

A

Gulyamov

7

A

Ismoilov

32

▼

25

33

4

32

5

▼

Gulomov

18

Temirov

6

Kryeziu

71

▼

Abdumanno

10

▼

Abduganie

13

▼

Azimov

7

▼

Turdimuro

46'▲D. Abdumannopov←▼S. Azimov

66'▲M. Mehanovic←▼I. Abduganiev

66'▲F. Sokhibzhonov←▼B. Abdumannonov

77'▲U. Ismonaliev←▼R. Turdimurodov

84'▲I. Mashukov←▼A. Gulomov

Andijan substitutes

1Adkhamov8Shaykulov9Mehanovic11Mashukov14Komilov17Sokhibzhonov22Ismonaliev23Abdumannopov66Djurickovic

66'▲J. Boltaboev←▼I. Alibaev

77'▲B. Toshmirzaev←▼K. Ruziev

77'▲T. Tabatadze←▼Z. Marusic

90+3'▲M. Giyosov←▼J. Iskanderov

Neftchi substitutes

77Toshmirzaev33Yoqubjonov22Tabatadze45Turaev14Boltaboev9Gadoev17Giyosov6Yuldoshev28Karimov