Andijan 1–2 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Andijan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv

M. Boakye 10'

M. Bikmaev 86'

T. Abdukholikov 36'

5/17/2021

Super League · Round 9Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Andijan37%

×Draw27%

Lokomotiv36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Andijan

1.23

Lokomotiv

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 74 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.26

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Andijan

1.19

Lokomotiv

1.16

allows per match

Andijan

1.26

Lokomotiv

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

64%

Andijan or Lokomotiv

73%

Draw or Lokomotiv

63%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

16%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

71%

Andijan 2+ goals

35%

Andijan 3+ goals

13%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

70%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

34%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

51%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Andijan scores more

37%

level

27%

Lokomotiv scores more

36%

Andijan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

32'

36'

51'

53'

53'

I. Abdulkhaqov← K. Saidazimov

58'

J. Jumaboyev← I. Rashidkhanov

58'

S. Kodirkulov← K. Makharadze

64'

A. Amonov← D. Komilov

73'

A. Gulomov← S. Hamidjonov

77'

S. Kodirkulov

78'

J. Alijanov← S. Mukhammadiyev

78'

M. Bikmaev← J. Sidikov

82'

D. Ismoilov← F. Sohibjonov

86'

90'

90'

90+1'

Andijan

Lokomotiv

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

53'▲I. Abdulkhaqov←▼K. Saidazimov

73'▲A. Gulomov←▼S. Hamidjonov

82'▲D. Ismoilov←▼F. Sohibjonov

Andijan substitutes

AbdulkhaqovGulomovIsmoilovIsmoilovKasymovAtakhanovQilichevAbdullaevToirov

Manager: Micael Sequeira

58'▲J. Jumaboyev←▼I. Rashidkhanov

58'▲S. Kodirkulov←▼K. Makharadze

64'▲A. Amonov←▼D. Komilov

78'▲J. Alijanov←▼S. Mukhammadiyev

78'▲M. Bikmaev←▼J. Sidikov

Lokomotiv substitutes

JumaboyevKodirkulovAmonovAlijanovBikmaevAbdujalilovBardancaChikrizovGanikhonov

Super League: Andijan 1–2 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Andijan 2-1 in Super League on May 17, 2021.

Goals: M. Boakye (10'), T. Abdukholikov (36'), M. Bikmaev (86').

The match was played at Bobur Arena in Andijan.

Andijan vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Andijan 1–2 Lokomotiv