Andijan 1–2 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Andijan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Samarqand

L. Uskokovic 81'

F. Abdurakhmonov 90'

U. Abdullaev 66'

4/20/2025

Super League · Round 6Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Andijan42%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Samarqand32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndijanExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.25

Andijan

1.46

Dinamo Samarqand

1.25

Andijan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 62 away

1.19

creates per match

1.23

1.26

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Andijan

1.19

Dinamo Samarqand

1.23

allows per match

Andijan

1.26

Dinamo Samarqand

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Andijan or draw

68%

Andijan or Dinamo Samarqand

74%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

58%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals

77%

Andijan 2+ goals

43%

Andijan 3+ goals

18%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)

56%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.19 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Andijan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Andijan scores more

42%

level

26%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

32%

Andijan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

D. Temirov

28'

U. Abdullaev

64'

U. Ismonaliev← D. Abdumannopov

64'

A. Kryeziu← D. Temirov

64'

F. Abdurakhmonov← R. Friday

64'

Maykon Douglas← M. Stanojevic

66'

U. Abdullaev↳ Ratinho

68'

73'

M. Mehanovic← I. Abduganiev

74'

S. Kodirkulov← U. Abdullaev

78'

O. Zoteev← A. Komilov

78'

I. Mashukov← R. Turdimurodov

81'

L. Uskokovic↳ A. Kryeziu

89'

K. Khalilov← A. Khozhimirzaev

90+6'

M. DjurickovicGoal Disallowed - offside

90'

F. Abdurakhmonov↳ M. Mirakhmadov

Andijan

Dinamo

13

Yagudin

17

Mustafoev

18

Kucherenk

22

⚽

▼

Abdullaev

6

Urozov

88

▼

Stanojevi

7

A

Ratinho

25

Urmonjono

10

▼

Khozhimir

9

A

Mirakhmad

16

▼

Friday

1

Adkhamov

14

▼

Komilov

32

⚽

Uskokovic

5

Gulomov

66

Djurickov

23

▼

Abdumanno

8

Shaykulov

71

Abdumanno

18

▼

Temirov

10

▼

Abduganie

7

▼

Turdimuro

64'▲U. Ismonaliev←▼D. Abdumannopov

64'▲A. Kryeziu←▼D. Temirov

73'▲M. Mehanovic←▼I. Abduganiev

78'▲O. Zoteev←▼A. Komilov

78'▲I. Mashukov←▼R. Turdimurodov

Andijan substitutes

4Mamatkazin13Azimov17Sokhibzhonov12Komilov22Ismonaliev33Zoteev6Kryeziu11Mashukov9Mehanovic

64'▲F. Abdurakhmonov←▼R. Friday

64'▲Maykon Douglas←▼M. Stanojevic

74'▲S. Kodirkulov←▼U. Abdullaev

89'▲K. Khalilov←▼A. Khozhimirzaev

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

11Khalilov14Nasimov37Abdurakhmonov5Douglas27Nemanov21Ibrakhimov8Kodirkulov15Aloxojayev24Bozorov