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Anderlecht W vs K.S.K. Heist W — Super League Women 2018

Anderlecht W
Anderlecht W
FT
5 – 0
K.S.K. Heist W
K.S.K. Heist W
3/15/2019Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 20Centre National de Football Euro 2000 (Tubize)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Anderlecht W96%
×Draw3%
K.S.K. Heist W1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht W
4.84
K.S.K. Heist W
0.45

Anderlecht W creates 976% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 11 away

creates per match

Anderlecht W
3.32
K.S.K. Heist W
0.18

allows per match

Anderlecht W
0.72
K.S.K. Heist W
6.36

finishing

Anderlecht W+0.00on par
K.S.K. Heist W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht W ↓

K.S.K. Heist W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–17%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Anderlecht W or draw
99%
Anderlecht W or K.S.K. Heist W
97%
Draw or K.S.K. Heist W
4%

Winning margin

Anderlecht W wins by 2+
88%
K.S.K. Heist W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Anderlecht W 1+ goals
99%
Anderlecht W 2+ goals
94%
Anderlecht W 3+ goals
82%
K.S.K. Heist W 1+ goals
36%
K.S.K. Heist W 2+ goals
8%
K.S.K. Heist W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht W (draw refunded)
99%
K.S.K. Heist W (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht W at home — creates 3.32, concedes 0.72 · 104 matches

K.S.K. Heist W away — creates 0.18, concedes 6.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht W attack 3.32 + K.S.K. Heist W defence 6.36 → ÷2 → 4.84

K.S.K. Heist W attack 0.18 + Anderlecht W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Anderlecht W scores more
96%
level
3%
K.S.K. Heist W scores more
1%

Anderlecht W at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Anderlecht W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Anderlecht W 5–0 K.S.K. Heist W

Anderlecht W beat K.S.K. Heist W 5-0 in Super League Women on March 15, 2019.

The match was played at Centre National de Football Euro 2000 (Tubize).