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Anderlecht W vs Club Brugge W — Super League Women 2018

Anderlecht W
Anderlecht W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Club Brugge W
Club Brugge W
11/8/2025Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Anderlecht W68%
×Draw17%
Club Brugge W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht W
2.55
Club Brugge W
1.11

Anderlecht W creates 130% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 88 away

creates per match

Anderlecht W
3.32
Club Brugge W
1.51

allows per match

Anderlecht W
0.72
Club Brugge W
1.78

finishing

Anderlecht W+0.00on par
Club Brugge W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht W ↓

Club Brugge W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Anderlecht W or draw
85%
Anderlecht W or Club Brugge W
83%
Draw or Club Brugge W
32%

Winning margin

Anderlecht W wins by 2+
46%
Club Brugge W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Anderlecht W 1+ goals
92%
Anderlecht W 2+ goals
72%
Anderlecht W 3+ goals
46%
Club Brugge W 1+ goals
67%
Club Brugge W 2+ goals
30%
Club Brugge W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht W (draw refunded)
82%
Club Brugge W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht W at home — creates 3.32, concedes 0.72 · 104 matches

Club Brugge W away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht W attack 3.32 + Club Brugge W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.55

Club Brugge W attack 1.51 + Anderlecht W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Anderlecht W scores more
68%
level
17%
Club Brugge W scores more
15%

Anderlecht W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Anderlecht W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht W vs Club Brugge W

Anderlecht W beat Club Brugge W 2-1 in Super League Women on November 8, 2025.